PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedSelected book midpoint
Under 5.3 · —
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Stored reference
Under 5.3 94.3%Leader of 6 outcomesVig-adjusted: raw venue quotes summed above 100% and were normalized.
Under 5.3 94.3%Market quality
55 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$351.2
Liquidity
$147.5
Low liquidityOpen interest
$150.7
Bid / Ask
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Under 5.3Spread
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Comments
0
Market data
Updated 3 minutes ago
Oct 17, 26, 4:07 AM UTCOct 19, 26, 6:00 PM UTC
Chart and changes show stored historical probabilities, not the selected live book.
Trends
Selected row: book midpoint. Other rows: stored references, possibly normalized; 24h changes use stored history.
Venue terms
Source: Polymarket
Informational venue terms only; CoinRithm paper trading uses its own rules.
- Minimum order (shares):
- 5
- Tick size:
- 0.1 percentage points
- Fees:
- Yes
Top holders
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Market depth · Under 5.3
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Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
What will the biggest earthquake be on October 20, 2026?
PolymarketWhat will the biggest earthquake be on October 19, 2026?
PolymarketWhat will the biggest earthquake be on October 21, 2026?
PolymarketWhat will the biggest earthquake be on Oct 19, 2026?
KalshiWill Tokyo experience a major earthquake before the end of October 31, 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?
PolymarketRules
This market will resolve to the bracket containing the magnitude of the largest earthquake recorded globally on October 18, 2026, as reported by the USGS Earthquake Catalog.
- Brackets: the named outcome / the named outcome / the named outcome / the named outcome / the named outcome / the named outcome.
- Exactly one bracket resolves "Yes".
- The observation period is the UTC calendar day: 00:00 UTC to 23:59 UTC on October 18, 2026.
- An earthquake is assigned to the day containing its origin time.
- Magnitude refers to the USGS preferred magnitude value, listed under 'Magnitude' in the format column.