KalshiCheck availabilityKYC requiredVerified resolution dataWell calibratedSelected book midpoint
Magnitude of at least 5.2 · —
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Stored price
Magnitude of at least 5.8 47%Market line of 10 lines
Magnitude of at least 5.8 47%Market quality
47 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
$145.5
Open interest
$144.5
Low open interestBid / Ask
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Magnitude of at least 5.2Spread
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Market data
Updated 4 minutes ago
Oct 18, 26, 8:00 PM UTCOct 19, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Chart and changes show stored historical probabilities, not the selected live book.
Trends
Selected row: book midpoint. Other rows: stored references, possibly normalized; 24h changes use stored history.
Venue terms
Source: Kalshi
Informational venue terms only; CoinRithm paper trading uses its own rules.
- Early close:
- Yes
- Settlement timer:
- 30m (informational)
Market depth · Magnitude of at least 5.2
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Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
What will the biggest earthquake be on October 20, 2026?
PolymarketWhat will the biggest earthquake be on October 18, 2026?
PolymarketWhat will the biggest earthquake be on October 19, 2026?
PolymarketWill there be an 8 magnitude earthquake in California before 2027?
KalshiWhere will a 6.0+ magnitude earthquake occur by end of October?
PolymarketWhere will the largest magnitude Earthquake be in 2026?
Manifold MarketsRules
If the highest USGS-reported earthquake magnitude worldwide during Oct 19, 2026 from 12:00:00 AM through 11:59:59 PM UTC is 5.8 or higher, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:the United States Geological Survey
- The determining value is the USGS-reported magnitude displayed at Expiration, preferentially moment magnitude (Mw) and otherwise the primary magnitude type reported by USGS. If multiple earthquakes tie for the highest magnitude, all tied earthquakes count. If USGS ComCat is unavailable at Expiration, settlement may be delayed under the Contract contingencies.
Rules for each outcome
- Magnitude of at least 5.2
- If the highest USGS-reported earthquake magnitude worldwide during Oct 19, 2026 from 12:00:00 AM through 11:59:59 PM UTC is 5.2 or higher, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Magnitude of at least 5.4
- If the highest USGS-reported earthquake magnitude worldwide during Oct 19, 2026 from 12:00:00 AM through 11:59:59 PM UTC is 5.4 or higher, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Magnitude of at least 5.6
- If the highest USGS-reported earthquake magnitude worldwide during Oct 19, 2026 from 12:00:00 AM through 11:59:59 PM UTC is 5.6 or higher, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Magnitude of at least 5.8
- If the highest USGS-reported earthquake magnitude worldwide during Oct 19, 2026 from 12:00:00 AM through 11:59:59 PM UTC is 5.8 or higher, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Magnitude of at least 6.0
- If the highest USGS-reported earthquake magnitude worldwide during Oct 19, 2026 from 12:00:00 AM through 11:59:59 PM UTC is 6.0 or higher, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Magnitude of at least 6.2
- If the highest USGS-reported earthquake magnitude worldwide during Oct 19, 2026 from 12:00:00 AM through 11:59:59 PM UTC is 6.2 or higher, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Magnitude of at least 6.4
- If the highest USGS-reported earthquake magnitude worldwide during Oct 19, 2026 from 12:00:00 AM through 11:59:59 PM UTC is 6.4 or higher, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Magnitude of at least 6.6
- If the highest USGS-reported earthquake magnitude worldwide during Oct 19, 2026 from 12:00:00 AM through 11:59:59 PM UTC is 6.6 or higher, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Magnitude of at least 6.8
- If the highest USGS-reported earthquake magnitude worldwide during Oct 19, 2026 from 12:00:00 AM through 11:59:59 PM UTC is 6.8 or higher, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Magnitude of at least 7.0
- If the highest USGS-reported earthquake magnitude worldwide during Oct 19, 2026 from 12:00:00 AM through 11:59:59 PM UTC is 7.0 or higher, then the market resolves to Yes.