PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedSelected book midpoint
6.1 or more · —
Loading selected book…
—
Stored reference
6.1 or more 22.8%Leader of 6 outcomes
6.1 or more 22.8%Market quality
61 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$36.4
Liquidity
$3.3K
Medium liquidityOpen interest
$36.4
Bid / Ask
— / —
6.1 or moreSpread
—
Comments
0
Market data
Updated 9 minutes ago
Oct 17, 26, 4:07 AM UTCOct 20, 26, 6:00 PM UTC
Chart and changes show stored historical probabilities, not the selected live book.
Trends
Selected row: book midpoint. Other rows: stored references, possibly normalized; 24h changes use stored history.
Venue terms
Source: Polymarket
Informational venue terms only; CoinRithm paper trading uses its own rules.
- Minimum order (shares):
- 5
- Tick size:
- 1 percentage points
- Fees:
- Yes
Top holders
Loading top holders
Market depth · 6.1 or more
Loading selected book…
—
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
What will the biggest earthquake be on October 18, 2026?
PolymarketWhat will the biggest earthquake be on October 20, 2026?
PolymarketWill Tokyo experience a major earthquake before the end of October 31, 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?
PolymarketWill the U.S. confirm that aliens exist?
KalshiWhat happens first: AI beats Minecraft (RSG) in under 10 minutes or All Millennium Prize Problems Solved?
Manifold MarketsRules
This market will resolve to the bracket containing the magnitude of the largest earthquake recorded globally on October 19, 2026, as reported by the USGS Earthquake Catalog.
- Brackets: the named outcome / the named outcome / the named outcome / the named outcome / the named outcome / the named outcome.
- Exactly one bracket resolves "Yes".
- The observation period is the UTC calendar day: 00:00 UTC to 23:59 UTC on October 19, 2026.
- An earthquake is assigned to the day containing its origin time.
- Magnitude refers to the USGS preferred magnitude value, listed under 'Magnitude' in the format column.
Prediction Source Comparison
- Also available on Kalshi — What will the biggest earthquake be on Oct 19, 2026? · Magnitude of at least 5.2 91%