Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 96.7%
Forecasters
10
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 7 hours ago
StaleJun 13, 26, 12:13 AM UTCDec 31, 44, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will England become a US state before 2045?
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ForecastExWill any portion of Canada become a US state, territory, or other federal jurisdiction by December 31, 2028?
ForecastExWhich US Territories will be a part of a US State by 2045?
Manifold MarketsRules
Resolves as YES if Wales, or a successor political entity consisting substantially of the territory of Wales, is formally admitted to the United States as a U.S. state with an effective date before January 1st 2045.
- Resolution will be based on official legal recognition by the United States, such as an Act of Congress admitting Wales as a state, and the admission must have legally taken effect before the deadline.
- Resolves as NO if Wales has not become a U.S. state before January 1st 2045, including if it only becomes a U.S. territory, protectorate, commonwealth, associated state, military-administered region, or otherwise falls under U.S. influence without full U.S. statehood.
- If the entire United Kingdom, Great Britain, or another larger entity containing Wales is admitted as a single U.S. state, this market resolves YES only if Wales is included in that state at the time of admission.
