Will United Russia gain seats in the 2026 Russian Duma Elections?
PoliticsOne-OffElectionGeopoliticsRussia / Ukraine13dManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 51.8%
Forecasters
26
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 8 minutes ago
Jun 23, 26, 10:56 PM UTCSep 21, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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PolymarketRules
Resolution criteria
- This market resolves to YES if the United Russia party wins more than 324 seats in the 2026 Russian legislative (State Duma) election.
- This market resolves to NO if United Russia wins 324 seats or fewer (representing a net loss or no change compared to their 2021 election result of 324 seats).
- Source of Truth: Resolution will be determined by the official results published by the Central Election Commission (CEC) of the Russian Federation, or widely accepted reporting from reputable outlets such as Meduza or the finalized Wikipedia page for the 2026 Russian legislative election.
- Baseline: The baseline for comparison is the 324 seats United Russia won in the previous 2021 Duma election, rather than active seats held immediately prior to the 2026 dissolution.
- If the creator intends to use the active pre-election seat count instead of the 2021 election baseline, they must edit this description prior to election day.
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will United Russia gain seats in the 2026 Russian Duma Elections??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 52% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will United Russia gain seats in the 2026 Russian Duma Elections? resolve?
- Will United Russia gain seats in the 2026 Russian Duma Elections? is scheduled to resolve on September 21, 2026.
- How is Will United Russia gain seats in the 2026 Russian Duma Elections? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolution criteria