Will United Russia gain seats in the 2026 Russian Duma Elections?
PoliticsOne-OffElectionGeopoliticsRussia / Ukraine
Manifold MarketsClosedNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedThis market resolved: Yes (98.2%)
Resolved: Oct 12, 2026, 1:55 PM
Provider-verified resolution
CoinRithm has provider-backed winner and settlement-time evidence for this market.
Winning Outcome
Yes
At 7 days out
—
At 24 hours out
—
Data quality warningStale data
Data as of Oct 13, 2026, 12:28 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-3
Probability Timeline
Yes98.2%
No1.7999999999999972%
Won
Lost
Rules
Resolution criteria
- This market resolves to YES if the United Russia party wins more than 324 seats in the 2026 Russian legislative (State Duma) election.
- This market resolves to NO if United Russia wins 324 seats or fewer (representing a net loss or no change compared to their 2021 election result of 324 seats).
- Source of Truth: Resolution will be determined by the official results published by the Central Election Commission (CEC) of the Russian Federation, or widely accepted reporting from reputable outlets such as Meduza or the finalized Wikipedia page for the 2026 Russian legislative election.
- Baseline: The baseline for comparison is the 324 seats United Russia won in the previous 2021 Duma election, rather than active seats held immediately prior to the 2026 dissolution.
- If the creator intends to use the active pre-election seat count instead of the 2021 election baseline, they must edit this description prior to election day.
