Will Ukraine capture more territory than it loses to Russia in October 2026?
GeopoliticsOne-OffTechRussia / Ukraine2d
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 54%
Forecasters
29
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 15 minutes ago
Aug 24, 26, 9:30 AM UTCOct 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
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Manifold MarketsRules
Resolves based on the "Russian Net Monthly Advance" report of Black Bird group (positive values resolve NO, negative resolve YES) - typically published at their X account (xcancel.com/Black_BirdGroup).
- Here is their assessment as of May 2026 (from https://xcancel.com/Black_BirdGroup/status/2062585511340916856):
- [image]For context some analysts like Mike Kofman (e.g. in https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-long-game-with-jake-sullivan-and-jon-finer/id1850526014?i=1000771130026) believe that Ukraine has gained initiative on the battlefield and is likely to keep it for the next few months.
- If the group does not publish a new assessment following the same methodology by December 1st, this resolves NA