Will Trump "Sell Out" Taiwan Under Rubio's State Department
PoliticsOne-OffUS PoliticsGeopoliticsChina2y
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 67.8%
Forecasters
17
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 1 hour ago
LaggingNov 8, 24, 12:34 AM UTCJan 21, 29, 7:59 AM UTC
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PolymarketRules
Will the Trump administration take specific actions undermining support for Taiwan during Trump's term (January 20, 2025 - January 20, 2029), with Marco Rubio as Secretary of State?
- Resolution Criteria
- This market will resolve YES if ANY of the following occur during Trump's presidency with Rubio as Secretary of State:
- Official Policy Changes:
- Formal recognition of PRC sovereignty over Taiwan
- Explicit withdrawal of previous US security commitments to Taiwan
