Will Trump revoke EXISTING gender-neutral passports in his second term?
One-OffUS PoliticsPoliticsSociety & Culture2y
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast
No 68.2%
Forecasters
36
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 2 hours ago
StaleJan 25, 25, 11:35 PM UTCFeb 16, 29, 5:59 AM UTC
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FutuurRules
From January 20th, 2025, no new U.S. passports should be issued with an “X” (other/nondisclosed) in the Sex field — whitehouse.gov; CNN; Fox News
- However, it remains an open question what will happen to existing U.S. passports that were issued with an “X” in the Sex field, particularly over the short term.
- This question resolves YES if any existing, unexpired U.S. passport is actually revoked, solely on the basis of its having an “X” in the Sex field, before the deadline(s) given below.
- Generally, if a U.S. passport requires renewal or replacement, and its holder is required to select “M” or “F” in the Sex field as a condition of that renewal or replacement, that will NOT cause this question to resolve.
- However, if any U.S. passport holder is required by the U.S. passport office to renew their passport solely in order to get rid of an “X” in the Sex field, this question resolves YES.
- This question resolves YES if more than 5 unique States contain any international airport, sea port, or border crossing which officially maintains policy to regard passports with an “X” in the Sex field as being invalid.
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will Trump revoke EXISTING gender-neutral passports in his second term??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 68% as of September 17, 2026.
- When does Will Trump revoke EXISTING gender-neutral passports in his second term? resolve?
- Will Trump revoke EXISTING gender-neutral passports in his second term? is scheduled to resolve on February 16, 2029.
- How is Will Trump revoke EXISTING gender-neutral passports in his second term? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: From January 20th, 2025, no new U.S. passports should be issued with an “X” (other/nondisclosed) in the Sex field — whitehouse.gov; CNN; Fox News