Will Trump publicly convert to Judaism by the end of his second term?
PoliticsOne-OffUS PoliticsMiddle East2yManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 94.7%
Forecasters
11
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 16 hours ago
StaleDec 17, 25, 11:30 PM UTCJan 20, 29, 11:59 AM UTC
Trends
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FutuurRules
This market resolves YES if, before January 20, 2029, if all of the following occur:
- Donald Trump makes a public statement or announcement confirming that he has converted to Judaism.
- The conversion is formally recognized by a Jewish religious authority or organization, such as a recognized rabbinical court (Beth Din) or a major Jewish religious organization or synagogue.
- The conversion and its recognition are reported by at least one major, credible news outlet.
- The market resolves to NO if these conditions are not met by January 20, 2029.
- Additional Info:
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will Trump publicly convert to Judaism by the end of his second term??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 95% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will Trump publicly convert to Judaism by the end of his second term? resolve?
- Will Trump publicly convert to Judaism by the end of his second term? is scheduled to resolve on January 20, 2029.
- How is Will Trump publicly convert to Judaism by the end of his second term? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: This market resolves YES if, before January 20, 2029, if all of the following occur: