Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 83.5%
Forecasters
12
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 9 hours ago
StaleJul 19, 26, 12:07 PM UTCJan 20, 29, 12:00 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will Trump finish his second term?
Manifold MarketsIf Trump is elected in 2024, he finish his second term?
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KalshiHow many executive orders will Trump sign in his second term?
KalshiWill Trump be impeached in his second term?
FutuurRules
Resolves Yes if Trump finishes his second term.
- Resolves No if Trump doesn't serve a full second term for any reason.
Open markets
US Politics
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- JD Vance-0.1pt25%
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- Jon Ossoff12%
+49 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $703.9M
- 24h Vol
- $808.4K
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- J.D. Vance50%
- Marco Rubio-0.1pt20%
- Tucker Carlson3%
+39 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $701M
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31-2.5pt48.3%
- October 31-2.0pt29.3%
- September 30-4.0pt12.1%
+17 more outcomes
POLYMARKET$LAPTOP FDV above ___ one day after launch?
- $10M+9.8pt96%
- $25M+15.5pt94%
- $50M+31.5pt86%
+4 more outcomes
KALSHIWhich party will win the U.S. House?
- Democratic Party84.2%
- Republican Party-1.0pt15.8%
- Total Vol
- $28.3M
- 24h Vol
- $342.3K
KALSHI2028 Republican presidential nominee
- J.D. Vance44.2%
- Marco Rubio20.2%
- Ron DeSantis+0.1pt4.8%
+35 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $63.6M
- 24h Vol
- $338.6K
- Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- New Hampshire Democratic Senate nominee?
- Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms
- Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
- Which party will win the House in 2026?
- Trump renames New Mexico to New America by which date?
- 2026 Midterms: Congress Balance of Power?
- Will the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?
- Rhode Island Democratic Governor nominee?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will Trump finish his second term??
- Manifold Markets prices Yes at 84% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will Trump finish his second term? resolve?
- Will Trump finish his second term? is scheduled to resolve on January 20, 2029.
- How is Will Trump finish his second term? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolves Yes if Trump finishes his second term.