Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedData quality warningSource data degraded
Data as of Oct 25, 2026, 11:51 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Current community forecastNo 73%
Forecasters
33
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 2 hours ago
StaleSep 20, 26, 7:41 AM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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PolymarketRules
Currently Trump seems very bullish on AI/AGI and dismissive of AI safety.
- This market will resolve YES if I believe that his position on either has changed significantly.
- It will resolve based on social media posts his accounts make, executive orders etc. as long as it's attributable to him and not a quick quip.
- What he actually believes is not relevant for this market, only what he says and does.
- Trump changes his mind a lot, so I'd need to see a shift lasting longer than a couple days (maybe a week of consistency) to resolve YES, or some large decision like a China deal.
- If I'm not convinced he has changed his mind before EOY 2026, I will resolve this NO.
