Will Trump allow the US Mid-term elections to run in 2026?
PoliticsOne-OffUS PoliticsChessElectionSports9d
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 97.8%
Forecasters
48
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 1 hour ago
LaggingJan 14, 26, 1:34 AM UTCNov 3, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will the US Congress override a Trump veto before the mid-term elections in November 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill a former US president accuse Trump of interfering with the 2026 mid-term elections, before March 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill the Democratic Party win a majority in the Senate in the 2026 mid-term election
Manifold MarketsWill Polymarket allow US persons to trade on the 2026 midterms?
Manifold MarketsHow will presidential historians rank Biden relative to other past presidents?
Manifold MarketsWill the United States Midterm Elections be free and fair?
Manifold MarketsRules
The US is headed, I doubt the mid-terms will run, and if they do doubt Trump will allow the results to go through without issue.
- Expect he will either nullify the result (if not his way) or rig them to give him the result he wants
- Resolution criteria
- The 2026 US midterm elections are scheduled for November 3, 2026.
- This market resolves YES if the elections occur as scheduled on that date.
- The market resolves NO if Trump or his administration successfully prevents, postpones, or cancels the elections before they take place.
