Will there be any Congressional Special Election flips in the 119th Congress?
PoliticsOne-OffUS PoliticsElection5d
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Updated 35 minutes ago
Dec 4, 24, 10:41 PM UTCNov 3, 26, 10:59 PM UTC
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Manifold MarketsRules
This will resolve YES if there are any special elections where the incumbent party loses a seat between the swearing in of the 119th Congress and the 2026 General Election.
- This will not include any special elections held concurrently with general elections in 2026.
- In the case a representative or senator leaves their party and is an independent, the incumbent party will be defined as the last party which such representative caucused with in congress.
- This last occurred following George Santos's (R) expulsion in the 118th Congress as Tom Suozzi (D) won the special election held for New York's 3rd Congressional District.
- The last session of congress without any special election flips was the 144th Congress (2015-2017).
