Current community forecast
Yes 58%
Forecasters
19
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 9 hours ago
StaleMay 5, 25, 6:59 PM UTCDec 31, 29, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Which two parties will get the most seats in Parliament following the next UK general election after 2025?
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KalshiPresidential Election Winner 2028
PolymarketRules
Resolves YES if following the next UK general election, currently scheduled for on or before 15 August 2029, no single party has a majority in the House of Commons.
Open markets
PoliticsPOLYMARKETPresidential Election Winner 2028
- JD Vance-0.1pt25%
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- Total Vol
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- 24h Vol
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- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva-6.0pt53%
- Flávio Bolsonaro+5.5pt45%
- Renan Santos-0.2pt1%
+16 more outcomes
POLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
- J.D. Vance50%
- Marco Rubio-0.1pt20%
- Tucker Carlson3%
+39 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $701M
KALSHI2028 Democratic presidential nominee
- Jon Ossoff17%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez16%
- Gavin Newsom14%
+45 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $213.1M
- 24h Vol
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POLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.5pt74.3%
- New People (NL)-3.8pt21.8%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-1.1pt3%
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- Marine Le Pen+0.3pt36.4%
- Édouard Philippe+2.0pt31.3%
- Jean-Luc Mélenchon-1.0pt12.1%
+38 more outcomes
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- 2028 Republican presidential nominee
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will there be a hung parliament following the next UK general election??
- Manifold Markets prices Yes at 58% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will there be a hung parliament following the next UK general election? resolve?
- Will there be a hung parliament following the next UK general election? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2029.
- How is Will there be a hung parliament following the next UK general election? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolves YES if following the next UK general election, currently scheduled for on or before 15 August 2029, no single party has a majority in the House of Commons.