Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 66.9%
Forecasters
8
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 9 hours ago
StaleApr 10, 25, 6:10 PM UTCJan 1, 35, 10:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Republicans win democratically and then end democracy swiftly, satisfying militiants and quelling uprisings; civil war is avoided, but democracy becomes an empty shell and no part of the federal government regains democratic control by 2028
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FutuurRules
Resolution Criteria
- This market resolves to YES if a civil war breaks out in Turkey at any point between now and December 31, 2034.
- For the purposes of this market, a "civil war" is defined as an armed conflict within Turkey that:
- Results in at least 1,000 battle-related deaths within a 12-month period
- Involves organized armed groups fighting against the Turkish government or against each other
- Is recognized as a civil war by major international organizations (such as the UN) or by multiple credible conflict monitoring organizations
