Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast
Yes 59%
Forecasters
37
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 15 hours ago
StaleJan 2, 24, 10:55 AM UTCDec 31, 34, 9:59 PM UTC
Trends
Macro-Sensitive Assets
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will the World's GDP double in 5 years?
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Manifold Markets2026 World GDP Growth
PolymarketJobs numbers in Sep 2026?
KalshiUS defaults on debt by 2027?
PolymarketRules
We will resolve it at the closing time to "No" if there's no year with growth over 7% or insufficient growth for the GDP to have doubled.
- Otherwise, I will have to wait for official statistics to resolve this.
Open markets
EconomyPOLYMARKETFed Decision in September?
- 25 bps increase+2.0pt54%
- No change-3.0pt45%
- 50+ bps increase1%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $104.5M
- 24h Vol
- $2M
KALSHIInflation in August 2026 (CPI YoY)
- Above 2.5%99%
- Above 2.6%99%
- Above 2.8%99%
+23 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $629.4K
- 24h Vol
- $36K
KALSHICPI in August
- Above 0.1%99%
- Above -0.4%+1.0pt99%
- Above -0.3%99%
+12 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $388.5K
- 24h Vol
- $14.9K
KALSHIUS government budget balance in 2026
- Above -8.5% of GDP97%
- Above -8.0% of GDP71%
- Above -7.5% of GDP58%
+4 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $12.5K
- 24h Vol
- $12.5K
KALSHIRecession in 2027?
- No81%
- Yes-6.0pt19%
- Total Vol
- $360.5K
- 24h Vol
- $8.5K
KALSHIGovernment shutdown on Oct 1, 2026?
- No98%
- Yes2%
- Total Vol
- $711.9K
- 24h Vol
- $8K
- Recession this year?
- Will the Citrini scenario happen?
- France’s government budget balance in 2026
- United Kingdom’s government budget balance in 2026
- Eurozone GDP growth in Q3 2026
- China’s government budget balance in 2026
- Germany’s government budget balance in 2026
- CPI in September
- CPI core in August
- State of the economy at the end of 2026
- US real GDP growth in Q3 2026?
- Unemployment in September
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will the World's GDP double in 10 years??
- Manifold Markets prices Yes at 59% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will the World's GDP double in 10 years? resolve?
- Will the World's GDP double in 10 years? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2034.
- How is Will the World's GDP double in 10 years? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: We will resolve it at the closing time to "No" if there's no year with growth over 7% or insufficient growth for the GDP to have doubled.