Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedData quality warningStale data
Data as of Jul 22, 2026, 8:20 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-2
Current community forecastYes 12.3%
Forecasters
49
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 3 days ago
StaleAug 28, 23, 8:17 AMDec 31, 28, 9:59 PM
Trends
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
Yes12%
Volume trend
$227Jul 212d of dataJul 22
Macro-Sensitive Assets
Related Markets
Inflation in July 2026 (CPI YoY)
$12KAbove 3.4%: 31%
KALSHI
KALSHI
UK Annual GDP Growth 2026
$4.4K0-1%: 56%
POLYMARKET
POLYMARKET
Recession this year?
$3.7KYes: 10%KALSHI
KALSHI
2026: Trump's dream year?
$2KYes: 5%KALSHI
KALSHI
US economic state at the end of 2026?
$1.7KSoft Landing: 62%POLYMARKET
POLYMARKET
US recession by end of 2026?
$532.1Yes: 12%POLYMARKET
POLYMARKETActive in these topics
Rules
Resolution criteria are not yet available for this market. Refresh cycles will populate this section when source rules are stored.