Will the US refuse entry to nonimmigrant travellers at at least three times the rate in 2025 than it did in 2024?
One-OffUS PoliticsRegulation3moManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 92.1%
Forecasters
33
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 11 minutes ago
Apr 14, 25, 6:21 AM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will Venezuela have a higher incarceration rate in 2028 than it did in 2022?
Manifold MarketsWill Trump refuse to carry out or obey any Supreme Court decisions?
Manifold MarketsWhen will an AI-related event dominate the mainstream news cycle for at least three consecutive days?
Manifold MarketsWill unit 1 of the Three Mile Island nuclear power plant restart before 2029?
Manifold MarketsClarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
PolymarketWill marijuana be rescheduled?
KalshiRules
Resolves upon publication of the 2025 DHS Yearbook of Immigration Statistics, or earlier if official DHS data is available that can reasonably be expected to contain identical data to what will be in the Yearbook:
- https://ohss.dhs.gov/topics/immigration/yearbook
- The US nonimmigrant inadmissibility rate for the purposes of this market is defined as:
- rate = inadmissible / (admissions + inadmissible)
- If this rate is at least three times as high in 2025 as it was in 2024, the market resolves YES.
- Otherwise it resolves NO.