Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedData quality warningSource data degraded
Data as of Oct 25, 2026, 10:17 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Current community forecastYes 53%
Forecasters
15
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 3 hours ago
StaleMar 29, 26, 2:55 PM UTCJan 15, 27, 12:00 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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PolymarketRules
Resolution criteria (strict):
- Resolves YES if, on or before 2026-12-31 23:59:59 ET, the U.S. President signs into law a federal statute where AI is a primary subject.
- Executive orders, agency guidance, draft bills, committee approvals, or state laws do NOT count.
- If no qualifying federal AI statute is signed by deadline, resolves NO.
- Primary sources:
- Congress.gov final bill status