Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 56.6%
Forecasters
14
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 1 hour ago
LaggingMar 29, 26, 2:55 PM UTCJan 15, 27, 12:00 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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PolymarketRules
Resolution criteria (strict):
- Resolves YES if, on or before 2026-12-31 23:59:59 ET, the U.S. President signs into law a federal statute where AI is a primary subject.
- Executive orders, agency guidance, draft bills, committee approvals, or state laws do NOT count.
- If no qualifying federal AI statute is signed by deadline, resolves NO.
- Primary sources:
- Congress.gov final bill status
Open markets
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will the US pass a federal AI law before Dec 31, 2026??
- Manifold Markets prices Yes at 57% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will the US pass a federal AI law before Dec 31, 2026? resolve?
- Will the US pass a federal AI law before Dec 31, 2026? is scheduled to resolve on January 15, 2027.
- How is Will the US pass a federal AI law before Dec 31, 2026? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolution criteria (strict):