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Data as of Oct 25, 2026, 7:55 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Current community forecastNo 88.5%
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14
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binary
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Updated 20 hours ago
StaleJun 27, 25, 6:19 PM UTCJan 3, 27, 11:59 PM UTC
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Will a federal law that preempts state-level AI regulation pass by the end of this Congress (i.e. January 3, 2027)?
- I intend to take a broad view on what "preemption" means.
- For instance:
- This question resolves YES if a law passes that penalizes states for passing or enforcing regulations on AI, even if it does not ban states from doing so.
- This question resolves YES if only some kinds of AI regulations get preempted (so long as the legislation preempts AI regulation in particular, as opposed to preempting some other class of state-level regulation that just so happens to preempt some kinds of AI regulation as well).
- For example, the Lummis bill has a narrow preemption clause that preempts enforcement of state laws against developers under certain narrow circumstances (see page 9, line 18 here).