Circuit-level appeal of a dismissal of a microplastics case on the merits (preemption, causation, pleadings) byEOY2028?
RegulationOne-OffCrime & Justice2yManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 57.4%
Forecasters
2
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 1 hour ago
LaggingApr 24, 26, 7:44 AM UTCDec 31, 28, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
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PredictItRules
Resolution criteria
- This market resolves to "YES" if a United States Court of Appeals issues a ruling on the merits regarding the dismissal of a civil lawsuit concerning microplastics by 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2028.
- To count as a "ruling on the merits," the appellate court must issue a written opinion or memorandum order affirming, reversing, or vacating a lower court’s dismissal based on arguments involving federal preemption, causation, or the sufficiency of the pleadings (e.g., failure to state a claim under Rule 12(b)(6)).
- The market resolves "NO" if no such appellate ruling is issued by the deadline.
- This market will be resolved based on filings available via PACER (Public Access to Court Electronic Records) or official dockets maintained by the relevant U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals.
- If the case is settled, withdrawn, or dismissed on procedural grounds unrelated to the merits before an appellate ruling is reached, the market will resolve "NO".
