Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 89.7%
Forecasters
5
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 10 hours ago
StaleSep 20, 25, 11:36 PM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
SCREEN Act passes during 119th Congress?
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KalshiClarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
PolymarketRules
https://www.moreno.senate.gov/press-releases/new-moreno-bill-would-crack-down-on-outsourcing-fund-american-workers/
- The HIRE Act:
- Creates a 25% tax on outsourcing payments, defined as any money paid by a U.S. company or taxpayer to a foreign person whose work benefits consumers in the United States.
- Creates a “Domestic Workforce Fund” to collect any money raised from the outsourcing tax, which is used to support apprenticeships and workforce development programs.
- Prohibits companies from deducting any outsourcing payments.
- Something nearly equal that gets approved will also resolve this as YES, even if it's not proposed by the same person or is known by the same name.
Open markets
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- JD Vance-0.1pt25%
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+49 more outcomes
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- $703.9M
- 24h Vol
- $810.8K
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- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva-6.0pt53%
- Flávio Bolsonaro+5.5pt45%
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+16 more outcomes
POLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
- J.D. Vance50%
- Marco Rubio-0.1pt20%
- Tucker Carlson3%
+39 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $701M
KALSHI2028 Democratic presidential nominee
- Jon Ossoff17%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez16%
- Gavin Newsom14%
+45 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $213.1M
- 24h Vol
- $547.7K
POLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
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POLYMARKETNext French Presidential Election
- Marine Le Pen+0.3pt36.4%
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- Jean-Luc Mélenchon-1.0pt12.1%
+38 more outcomes
- US announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- Which party will win the U.S. House?
- 2028 Republican presidential nominee
- Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- Russia Parliamentary Election Winner
- New Hampshire Democratic Senate nominee?
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- Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for HIRE Act passes by 2026?
- Manifold Markets prices No at 90% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does HIRE Act passes by 2026 resolve?
- HIRE Act passes by 2026 is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2026.
- How is HIRE Act passes by 2026 settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: https://www.moreno.senate.gov/press-releases/new-moreno-bill-would-crack-down-on-outsourcing-fund-american-workers/