Will the US or China officially announce a Busan trade truce extension past Nov 10, 2026, by November 6, 2026?
One-OffTrade PolicyUS PoliticsChinaManifold MarketsClosedNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedThis market resolved: Yes (98.3%)
Resolved: Oct 12, 2026, 2:00 PM
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Data quality warningStale data
Data as of Oct 13, 2026, 12:28 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Probability Timeline
Yes98.3%
No1.7000000000000028%
Won
Lost
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FutuurRules
This market resolves YES if, on or before November 6, 2026, the US government (White House, USTR or Commerce) or the Chinese government (MOFCOM or State Council) has officially announced that the November 2025 Busan trade truce will continue beyond its November 10, 2026 expiry.
- An extension of any length counts, as does a successor arrangement that keeps China's October 9, 2025 export controls suspended past November 10, 2026.
- Statements that talks are progressing or that an extension is expected do not count.
- Otherwise it resolves NO.
- Background: after the October 30, 2025 Trump-Xi meeting in Busan, China suspended its October 2025 rare-earth and battery-material export controls until November 10, 2026 (MOFCOM/GAC Announcement No. 70 of 2025), and the US suspended matching measures for one year.
- Xi Jinping's state visit to Washington runs September 23-25, 2026, with the bilateral meeting on September 24.
