Will the US create a universal Healthcare system by EOY 2030?
PoliticsOne-OffHealth & MedicineUS Politics3yManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 75%
Forecasters
6
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 4 minutes ago
Oct 20, 26, 7:02 PM UTCDec 31, 29, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
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KalshiRules
Resolution criteria
- This market resolves to YES if, on or before December 31, 2030, at 11:59 PM ET, federal legislation is enacted into law in the United States establishing a universal healthcare system nationwide, or if a national system providing statutory healthcare coverage to all U.S. residents/citizens takes effect.
- For the purpose of this market:
- "Enacted into law" requires that a bill has been signed by the President or enacted via a congressional veto override, as documented on Congress.gov.
- A "universal healthcare system" is defined as a statutory program ensuring that substantially all legal residents or citizens of the United States are automatically covered or mandated to have comprehensive medical insurance/care (e.g., single-payer "Medicare for All", a universal multi-payer statutory system, or a universal public option providing guaranteed universal coverage).
- Incremental expansions of existing programs (such as lowering the Medicare eligibility age, standard Medicaid expansion, or adjustments to Affordable Care Act subsidies) will not trigger a YES resolution unless the legislation guarantees coverage to virtually the entire population.
