KalshiCheck availabilityKYC requiredVerified resolution dataWell calibratedSelected book midpoint
Before Jan 1, 2028 · —
Loading selected book…
—
Stored price
Before Jan 1, 2028 68.5%Leader of 3 outcomes
Before Jan 1, 2028 68.5%Market quality
33 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
$11.6
Open interest
$1.4K
Low open interestBid / Ask
— / —
Before Jan 1, 2028Spread
—
Market data
Updated 23 minutes ago
Sep 4, 26, 4:00 PM UTCJul 1, 27, 3:59 AM UTC
Chart and changes show stored historical probabilities, not the selected live book.
Trends
Selected row: book midpoint. Other rows: stored references, possibly normalized; 24h changes use stored history.
Venue terms
Source: Kalshi
Informational venue terms only; CoinRithm paper trading uses its own rules.
- Early close:
- Yes
- Settlement timer:
- 30m (informational)
Market depth · Before Jan 1, 2028
Loading selected book…
—
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will Trump create a National Bitcoin Reserve in 2026?
KalshiWill the US create a new regulatory body for AI oversight in 2026?
FutuurWill the US create an antitrust safe harbor for AI safety & security collaboration by 2028?
Manifold MarketsWill the US create a universal Healthcare system by EOY 2030?
Manifold MarketsBalance of Power: 2026 Midterms
PolymarketTexas Senate winner?
KalshiRules
If the United States agrees to or announces the establishment of a national AI regulator before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:The White HouseU.S. Department of CommerceNational Institute of Standards and TechnologyAssociated PressReuters
- For this market, a qualifying establishment must be adopted through a law, executive order, regulation, or other binding official act, or unconditionally announced by the President, an authorized Cabinet official, or another authorized U.S. government body. A new body or formally designated existing body qualifies only if a binding official action grants it primary nationwide, cross-sector AI rulemaking, licensing, supervisory, or enforcement authority comparable in substance to a national regulator, or if an unconditional official announcement commits to granting it such authority, including when that authority will take effect later. The body's name or form does not control: a council, office, standards body, or SRO qualifies if one identifiable body receives those powers. A body that only advises, coordinates, studies, tests, sets voluntary standards, conducts one-off reviews, or has only sector-specific authority does not qualify. Distributed sector-by-sector authority does not qualify.
Rules for each outcome
- Before Jan 1, 2028
- If the United States agrees to or announces the establishment of a national AI regulator before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Before Jul 1, 2027
- If the United States agrees to or announces the establishment of a national AI regulator before Jul 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Before Jan 1, 2027
- If the United States agrees to or announces the establishment of a national AI regulator before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.