Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 85.7%
Forecasters
28
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 7 hours ago
StaleMar 7, 26, 3:58 PM UTCJul 31, 29, 10:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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Manifold MarketsWill the US officially declare war on Iran by which date?
PolymarketUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
PolymarketWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
PolymarketRules
At war includes:
- US troops on the ground in Iran
- Ongoing strikes by either side
- Strait of Hormuz closed to most traffic, and US Naval forces in the area
- Routine US overflights or Iran, such as an enforced no-fly zone
- This is based on the status at the time Trump leaves office, not before; if the war pauses and then resumes and is ongoing when Trump leaves, this will resolve Yes, pause notwithstanding.
Open markets
US PoliticsPOLYMARKETPresidential Election Winner 2028
- JD Vance-0.1pt25%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez13%
- Jon Ossoff12%
+49 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $703.9M
- 24h Vol
- $808.4K
POLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
- J.D. Vance50%
- Marco Rubio-0.1pt20%
- Tucker Carlson3%
+39 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $701M
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31-2.5pt48.3%
- October 31-2.0pt29.3%
- September 30-4.0pt12.1%
+17 more outcomes
POLYMARKET$LAPTOP FDV above ___ one day after launch?
- $10M+9.8pt96%
- $25M+15.5pt94%
- $50M+31.5pt86%
+4 more outcomes
KALSHIWhich party will win the U.S. House?
- Democratic Party84.2%
- Republican Party-1.0pt15.8%
- Total Vol
- $28.3M
- 24h Vol
- $342.3K
KALSHI2028 Republican presidential nominee
- J.D. Vance44.2%
- Marco Rubio20.2%
- Ron DeSantis+0.1pt4.8%
+35 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $63.6M
- 24h Vol
- $338.6K
- Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- New Hampshire Democratic Senate nominee?
- Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms
- Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
- Which party will win the House in 2026?
- Trump renames New Mexico to New America by which date?
- 2026 Midterms: Congress Balance of Power?
- Will the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?
- Rhode Island Democratic Governor nominee?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will the US be at war with Iran when Trump leaves office??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 86% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will the US be at war with Iran when Trump leaves office? resolve?
- Will the US be at war with Iran when Trump leaves office? is scheduled to resolve on July 31, 2029.
- How is Will the US be at war with Iran when Trump leaves office? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: At war includes: