Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 85.7%
Forecasters
28
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 33 minutes ago
Mar 7, 26, 3:58 PM UTCJul 31, 29, 10:59 AM UTC
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Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will a 250-foot triumphal arch be built across from the Lincoln Memorial before Trump leaves office?
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Manifold MarketsWill the US officially declare war on Iran by which date?
PolymarketUS-Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
PolymarketRules
At war includes:
- US troops on the ground in Iran
- Ongoing strikes by either side
- Strait of Hormuz closed to most traffic, and US Naval forces in the area
- Routine US overflights or Iran, such as an enforced no-fly zone
- This is based on the status at the time Trump leaves office, not before; if the war pauses and then resumes and is ongoing when Trump leaves, this will resolve Yes, pause notwithstanding.
