Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 93.7%
Forecasters
31
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 21 hours ago
StaleNov 13, 25, 11:48 PM UTCJan 19, 29, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will China invade the Kinmen Islands of Taiwan before Trump leaves office?
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Manifold MarketsWill Trump release more Epstein files in Oct 2026?
KalshiJeffrey Epstein confirmed to be alive before 2027?
PolymarketRules
Resolution criteria
- This market resolves YES if Trump leaves office before the end of his current term (January 20, 2029) for any reason directly related to the Epstein files or documents.
- This includes resignation, impeachment and conviction, or removal via the 25th Amendment if explicitly triggered by Epstein-related revelations or political pressure stemming from the files.
- The market resolves NO if Trump completes his term or leaves office for unrelated reasons (health, other scandals, etc.).
- If Trump leaves office and the primary cause is ambiguous or disputed, resolution will be determined by the creator's assessment of whether Epstein files were a material factor in the departure.
- Trump promised during the 2024 election to release the Justice Department's "Epstein files," but his administration has resisted doing so.