Will the "Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity" in the Caucasus get built by 2030?
US PoliticsOne-OffGeopoliticsRussia / Ukraine3yManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 58.3%
Forecasters
9
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 7 hours ago
StaleAug 10, 25, 10:09 PM UTCDec 31, 29, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
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The proposed route goes from Azerbaijan through Armenia to Turkey and it's supposed to be controlled by the US.
- If the route goes the full length and is in fact controlled by the US (US personal present and in control) this resolves YES.
- A partial route or a route not controlled by the US resolves NO.
- If it's unclear who controls the route, I'll create a poll.
- Context: https://www.reuters.com/world/us-secures-strategic-transit-corridor-armenia-azerbaijan-peace-deal-2025-08-07/
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will the "Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity" in the Caucasus get built by 2030??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 58% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will the "Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity" in the Caucasus get built by 2030? resolve?
- Will the "Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity" in the Caucasus get built by 2030? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2029.
- How is Will the "Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity" in the Caucasus get built by 2030? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: The proposed route goes from Azerbaijan through Armenia to Turkey and it's supposed to be controlled by the US.