Current community forecast
No 70.3%
Forecasters
6
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 9 minutes ago
Aug 27, 26, 9:52 AM UTCSep 13, 26, 6:00 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Sweden Riksdag election: 7th place (vote share)
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Manifold MarketsWill the Sweden Democrats increase their share in parliament in the Swedish 2026 general election?
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PolymarketSweden Parliamentary Election: V Vote Share?
PolymarketRules
Sweden votes for the Riksdag on 13 September 2026.
- Resolves YES if the Sweden Democrats (Sverigedemokraterna, SD) receive strictly more than 20.54% of valid votes in the 2026 Riksdag election.
- Resolves NO if SD receive 20.54% or less.
- Baseline: SD received 20.54% in the 2022 Riksdag election (official 2022 results).
- Resolution source: the final official count published by the Swedish Election Authority, Valmyndigheten — https://www.val.se.
- This is the definitive count (the 'onsdagsrakning' final tally), not election-night preliminary numbers.
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will the Sweden Democrats beat their 2022 vote share (20.54%) in the September 2026 Riksdag election??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 70% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will the Sweden Democrats beat their 2022 vote share (20.54%) in the September 2026 Riksdag election? resolve?
- Will the Sweden Democrats beat their 2022 vote share (20.54%) in the September 2026 Riksdag election? is scheduled to resolve on September 13, 2026.
- How is Will the Sweden Democrats beat their 2022 vote share (20.54%) in the September 2026 Riksdag election? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Sweden votes for the Riksdag on 13 September 2026.