Current community forecast
Yes 88.7%
Forecasters
15
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 7 minutes ago
Aug 14, 25, 5:41 PM UTCSep 12, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Liberals still in Riksdag after next election?
Manifold MarketsSweden Riksdag election: 7th place (vote share)
KalshiWill the Sweden Democrats beat their 2022 vote share (20.54%) in the September 2026 Riksdag election?
Manifold MarketsWhich minor party will enter the Riksdag next?
Manifold MarketsNext French Presidential Election
PolymarketWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
PolymarketRules
See also: @/Pazzaz/liberals-still-in-riksdag-after-202
- In Sweden, the Christian Democrats (Kristdemokraterna, KD) received 5.3% of the votes in the 2022 election, which gave them 19 seats in the Riksdag.
- But now (in June 2025) they are polling below 4% so they might lose all their seats in the next election in 2026.
- Will they recover?
- This resolves YES if the Christian Democrats get any seats in the Riksdag after the 2026 election
- This resolves NO if the Christian Democrats do not get any seats in the Riksdag after the 2026 election
Open markets
PoliticsPOLYMARKETPresidential Election Winner 2028
- JD Vance-0.1pt25%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez13%
- Jon Ossoff12%
+49 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $703.9M
- 24h Vol
- $837.2K
POLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
- J.D. Vance50%
- Marco Rubio+1.0pt20%
- Tucker Carlson+0.1pt3%
+39 more outcomes
POLYMARKETBrazil Presidential Election
- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva-1.0pt55.5%
- Flávio Bolsonaro+2.5pt42.6%
- Renan Santos-0.1pt1%
+16 more outcomes
KALSHI2028 Democratic presidential nominee
- Jon Ossoff16.5%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez15.5%
- Gavin Newsom13.6%
+45 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $213M
- 24h Vol
- $477.5K
POLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+4.0pt73%
- New People (NL)-2.5pt23%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-0.5pt3%
POLYMARKETNext French Presidential Election
- Marine Le Pen-1.3pt36.4%
- Édouard Philippe+1.0pt31.3%
- Jean-Luc Mélenchon-1.0pt12.1%
+38 more outcomes
- US announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- 2028 Republican presidential nominee
- Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
- Which party will win the U.S. House?
- South Carolina Senate winner?
- New Hampshire Democratic Senate nominee?
- Putin out as President of Russia by which date?
- Trump out as President by September 30?
- Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?
- Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Christian Democrats still in Riksdag after next election??
- Manifold Markets prices Yes at 89% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Christian Democrats still in Riksdag after next election? resolve?
- Christian Democrats still in Riksdag after next election? is scheduled to resolve on September 12, 2026.
- How is Christian Democrats still in Riksdag after next election? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: See also: @/Pazzaz/liberals-still-in-riksdag-after-202