Current community forecast
No 63.5%
Forecasters
38
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 6 minutes ago
Mar 30, 23, 2:48 AM UTCSep 21, 26, 3:59 AM UTC
Trends
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Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
2026 Swedish general election prop bets (Add Answers)
Manifold MarketsSwedish general election: Sweden Democrats vote percent
KalshiWill the Sweden Democrats beat their 2022 vote share (20.54%) in the September 2026 Riksdag election?
Manifold MarketsWill Sweden Democrats back or be in government after next election?
Manifold MarketsSwedish general election: Green Party vote percent
KalshiSwedish general election: Swedish Social Democratic Party vote percent
KalshiRules
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Swedish_general_election
- 20.5% of the votes in 2022.
- If 20.5% this resolves NO.
- If Sweden Democrats have changed name, but are the same party, the result still counts.
- If Sweden Democrats are not part of the 2026 elections, this resolves NO.
- If Sweden Democrats split into multiple parties, they are not aggregated, but I will rule on which one is closest to the original (presumably one that doesn't change its name).
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will the Sweden Democrats increase their share in parliament in the Swedish 2026 general election??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 64% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will the Sweden Democrats increase their share in parliament in the Swedish 2026 general election? resolve?
- Will the Sweden Democrats increase their share in parliament in the Swedish 2026 general election? is scheduled to resolve on September 21, 2026.
- How is Will the Sweden Democrats increase their share in parliament in the Swedish 2026 general election? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Swedish_general_election