Will the Supreme Court hear a case disputing the 2028 Presidential Election, and how will they rule?
Politics2y
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedData quality warningSource data degraded
Data as of Oct 25, 2026, 6:26 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Current community forecastNo, SCOTUS will rule on no such case 73.5%Leader of 3 outcomes
Forecasters
18
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 8 hours ago
StaleNov 23, 25, 7:14 PM UTCDec 31, 28, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
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KalshiRules
This market will resolve to one of the three listed outcomes based on whether and how the Supreme Court of the United States rule on a case disputing the top-of-the-ticket outcome of the 2028 United States Presidential Election.
- The case must actually reach SCOTUS and get resolved in a manner somewhat legally analogous to the 2000 election case of Bush v.
- Obviously, that case was regarding the Florida Supreme Court's ongoing recount order, but this market doesn't require that exact type of scenario.
- It does require that the case has the direct theoretical potential to alter the outcome of the presidential election, one way or the other.
- Gore 2000 would have resolved "the named outcome" because the recount could theoretically have swung the whole election if it had continued.
- Note that if it is truly ambiguous which way the ruling goes re: party favorability, then whichever party's candidate holds the office of the presidency on January 21st 2029 will be considered the "winner." A case which regards the election but does not credibly create a path to reverse or otherwise determine its outcome will not be considered for Yes, even if it is still very dramatic.
