Will the Supreme Court hear a case about prediction market pre-emption?
RegulationOne-OffCommoditiesUS Politics3y
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 61.9%
Forecasters
9
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 18 hours ago
StaleSep 8, 25, 6:18 PM UTCDec 31, 29, 7:13 PM UTC
Trends
Rules
Will the SCOTUS agree to hear a case about CFTC pre-emption wrt to prediction markets / events contracts by 2030?
- The case can be about Kalshi or any other event contract venue.
- The spirit of the market intends to resolve on the issue of whether or not state sports betting laws will be pre-empted, but in the interest of avoiding rules issues, any preemption case about PMs will do.
- Resolution criteria
- Resolves YES if, by market close, the U.S. Supreme Court grants certiorari in a case where the Questions Presented include whether federal law (e.g., the Commodity Exchange Act) preempts state gambling laws as applied to prediction markets/event contracts, and the Court holds oral argument (including in a consolidated case).
- Summary dispositions without argument and emergency applications on the shadow docket do NOT count.
