Data quality warningSource data degraded
Data as of Oct 26, 2026, 3:24 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Current community forecast
No 87.7%
Forecasters
3
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 36 minutes ago
Jun 29, 26, 6:40 PM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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Manifold MarketsRules
Resolution criteria
- This market resolves to YES if the "Stop Climate Shakedowns Act" (specifically S. 4340 or H.R. 8330 of the 119th Congress, or any substantially identical federal legislation passed under the same name) is enacted into law on or before December 31, 2026.
- To qualify as enacted, the bill must either be signed into law by the President or passed via a congressional override of a presidential veto, with the official status updated to "Became Public Law No: X" on Congress.gov by 11:59 PM Eastern Time on December 31, 2026.
- If the bill has not been officially enacted into law by the end of 2026, the market resolves to NO.
- The Stop Climate Shakedowns Act was introduced in April 2026 by Senator Ted Cruz (R-TX) in the Senate and Representative Harriet Hageman (R-WY) in the House.
- The legislation is designed to grant sweeping legal immunity to fossil fuel companies by prohibiting state and federal courts from hearing climate-related liability lawsuits.
