Current community forecast
No 87.7%
Forecasters
3
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 2 hours ago
StaleJun 29, 26, 6:40 PM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will H.R.4486 - Microplastics Safety Act pass before EOY2026?
Manifold MarketsWill the AI Kill Switch Act pass the US House of Representatives before Feb 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill Initiative #25-0024A1 (2026 Billionaire Tax Act) pass in California in 2026?
ForecastExWhen will the PROMISE Act pass the Senate?
KalshiWill the Climate Clock's 1.5°C deadline change by which date?
PolymarketWill the NWS stop providing weather forecasts before 2027?
Manifold MarketsRules
Resolution criteria
- This market resolves to YES if the "Stop Climate Shakedowns Act" (specifically S. 4340 or H.R. 8330 of the 119th Congress, or any substantially identical federal legislation passed under the same name) is enacted into law on or before December 31, 2026.
- To qualify as enacted, the bill must either be signed into law by the President or passed via a congressional override of a presidential veto, with the official status updated to "Became Public Law No: X" on Congress.gov by 11:59 PM Eastern Time on December 31, 2026.
- If the bill has not been officially enacted into law by the end of 2026, the market resolves to NO.
- The Stop Climate Shakedowns Act was introduced in April 2026 by Senator Ted Cruz (R-TX) in the Senate and Representative Harriet Hageman (R-WY) in the House.
- The legislation is designed to grant sweeping legal immunity to fossil fuel companies by prohibiting state and federal courts from hearing climate-related liability lawsuits.
Open markets
PoliticsPOLYMARKETPresidential Election Winner 2028
- JD Vance-0.6pt24%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez13%
- Jon Ossoff12%
+49 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $704M
- 24h Vol
- $804.1K
POLYMARKETBrazil Presidential Election
- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva-6.0pt53%
- Flávio Bolsonaro+5.5pt45%
- Renan Santos-0.3pt1%
+16 more outcomes
POLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.0pt73.3%
- New People (NL)-2.7pt22.8%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-0.9pt3%
POLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
- J.D. Vance50%
- Marco Rubio-0.2pt20%
- Tucker Carlson3%
+39 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $701.1M
KALSHI2028 Democratic presidential nominee
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez-1.0pt16.2%
- Jon Ossoff-2.0pt16.2%
- Gavin Newsom14.1%
+45 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $213.4M
KALSHINew Hampshire Democratic Senate nominee?
- Chris Pappas+1.3pt100%
- Karishma Manzur-1.8pt0%
- Jared Sullivan-0.2pt0%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $1.1M
- Next French Presidential Election
- US announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- Which party will win the U.S. House?
- 2028 Republican presidential nominee
- Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
- NH-01 Democratic nominee?
- Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- Russia Parliamentary Election Winner
- Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms
- NJ-07 House winner?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will the “Stop climate shakedowns act” pass by the end of 2026??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 88% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will the “Stop climate shakedowns act” pass by the end of 2026? resolve?
- Will the “Stop climate shakedowns act” pass by the end of 2026? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2026.
- How is Will the “Stop climate shakedowns act” pass by the end of 2026? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolution criteria