Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 85%
Forecasters
9
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 13 hours ago
StaleSep 12, 23, 10:06 AM UTCJan 1, 31, 8:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Which year will the first nuclear power plant in Poland start producing power?
Manifold MarketsWill the first SMR nuclear power plant in Poland produce energy before 2029?
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Manifold MarketsWill Helion Energy have a power plant in operation by the end of 2028?
ForecastExWill any country become a new nuclear power in 2026?
FutuurUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
PolymarketRules
The market resolves as YES if a nuclear power plant used primarily for electricity production has at least a partial meltdown (as in Three Miles Island) before the end of 2030.
- The meltdown should be bad enough to require the shutdown of the reactor.
- It would not necessarily lead to the release of radioactive material (the meltdown could be fully contained).
- The market resolves as NO if no such accident occured.
- Voluntary meltdown of fuel assemblies for research purposes in small research facilities are excluded.
- Only power plants are considered, submarine/ship reactors are excluded.
Open markets
GeopoliticsPOLYMARKETUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
- September 30+3.5pt77%
- September 18+4.0pt72%
- September 11+6.5pt66%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $1.9M
- 24h Vol
- $567K
POLYMARKETIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- July 18+0.3pt100%
- July 20+0.1pt100%
- July 22+0.5pt100%
+21 more outcomes
POLYMARKETStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
- No+4.5pt84.2%
- Yes-4.5pt15.8%
- Total Vol
- $11.2M
- 24h Vol
- $274.9K
POLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+2.0pt76%
- New People (NL)-1.4pt20%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)+0.2pt3%
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31-1.8pt50.4%
- October 31-2.5pt27.8%
- September 30-1.0pt12.2%
+17 more outcomes
POLYMARKETWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- No-1.0pt84.2%
- Yes+1.0pt15.8%
- Total Vol
- $65.3M
- 24h Vol
- $221.4K
- Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by which date?
- Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?
- US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by which date?
- Next round of US-Iran peace talks by which date?
- Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by which date?
- Who will attend a round of US-Iran peace talks by December 31?
- Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by which date?
- Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?
- Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will the reactor core of a nuclear power plant melt before EOY 2030??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 85% as of September 10, 2026.
- When does Will the reactor core of a nuclear power plant melt before EOY 2030? resolve?
- Will the reactor core of a nuclear power plant melt before EOY 2030? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2031.
- How is Will the reactor core of a nuclear power plant melt before EOY 2030? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: The market resolves as YES if a nuclear power plant used primarily for electricity production has at least a partial meltdown (as in Three Miles Island) before the end of 2030.