Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 85%
Forecasters
9
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 14 hours ago
StaleSep 12, 23, 10:06 AM UTCJan 1, 31, 8:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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ForecastExWill any country become a new nuclear power in 2026?
FutuurRules
The market resolves as YES if a nuclear power plant used primarily for electricity production has at least a partial meltdown (as in Three Miles Island) before the end of 2030.
- The meltdown should be bad enough to require the shutdown of the reactor.
- It would not necessarily lead to the release of radioactive material (the meltdown could be fully contained).
- The market resolves as NO if no such accident occured.
- Voluntary meltdown of fuel assemblies for research purposes in small research facilities are excluded.
- Only power plants are considered, submarine/ship reactors are excluded.
