Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedData quality warningSource data degraded
Data as of Oct 25, 2026, 4:00 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Current community forecastWill not happen by the end of 2040 37.4%Leader of 12 outcomes
Forecasters
28
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 15 hours ago
StaleNov 17, 23, 10:12 AM UTCDec 31, 40, 10:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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ForecastExWill any country become a new nuclear power in 2026?
FutuurRules
Currently, one is planned to start building in 2026, and operation in 2033.
- This will resolve to the first year in which a non-experimental, grid-scale reactor will be providing power (over 100 MWe) to the national grid for at least a week continuously.
