Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast
No 90.6%
Forecasters
18
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 12 hours ago
StaleJan 31, 23, 7:28 PM UTCDec 31, 29, 10:59 PM UTC
Trends
Rules
This prediction market resolves YES when the first Small Modular Reactor (SMR) power plant in Poland starts producing energy (including tests), as defined and determined by diverse mainstream media reports.
- If this does not happen before the January 1, 2029 deadline, however, the market resolves NO.
- „Pierwszy SMR powstanie w 2028 r.
- To już niebawem.
- I to jest czas realny do wykonania.” (Daniel Obajtek, 2023-01-31)
- „Mam taką nadzieję, że w 2028 r., te prace zdecydowanie przyspieszają, powstanie pierwszy SMR w Polsce.
Open markets
Geopolitics
POLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.0pt74.3%
- New People (NL)-3.8pt21.8%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-0.9pt3%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $25.8M
- 24h Vol
- $574.8K
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31-3.1pt48.3%
- October 31-3.0pt28.9%
- September 30-4.0pt12.3%
+17 more outcomes
POLYMARKETKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by which date?
- December 317%
- September 30+0.4pt2%
- July 310%
+7 more outcomes
- Total Vol
POLYMARKETUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
- September 30-4.0pt75%
- September 18-7.0pt69%
- September 11-13.0pt57%
+2 more outcomes
POLYMARKETWill China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
- No-0.1pt96%
- Yes+0.1pt4%
- Total Vol
- $41.1M
- 24h Vol
- $109.5K
POLYMARKETIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- July 18+0.3pt100%
- July 20+0.1pt100%
- July 22+0.5pt100%
+20 more outcomes
- Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026
- US-Iran nuclear deal?
- Russia x Ukraine peace talks by which date?
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by which date?
- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by which date?
- Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?
- Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by which date?
- US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by which date?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will the first SMR nuclear power plant in Poland produce energy before 2029??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 91% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will the first SMR nuclear power plant in Poland produce energy before 2029? resolve?
- Will the first SMR nuclear power plant in Poland produce energy before 2029? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2029.
- How is Will the first SMR nuclear power plant in Poland produce energy before 2029? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: This prediction market resolves YES when the first Small Modular Reactor (SMR) power plant in Poland starts producing energy (including tests), as defined and determined by diverse mainstream media reports.