Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 78.4%
Forecasters
12
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 14 hours ago
StaleJun 12, 25, 8:52 PM UTCJan 22, 29, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will Trump still be president on January 1, 2029?
Manifold MarketsWill Donald Trump be president on January 19, 2029?
Manifold MarketsPresidential Election Winner 2028
PolymarketRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
PolymarketUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
Polymarket2028 Republican presidential nominee
KalshiRules
Resolution criteria are not yet available for this market. Refresh cycles will populate this section when source rules are stored.
Open markets
PoliticsPOLYMARKETPresidential Election Winner 2028
- JD Vance-0.1pt25%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez13%
- Jon Ossoff12%
+49 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $703.9M
- 24h Vol
- $810.8K
POLYMARKETBrazil Presidential Election
- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva-6.0pt53%
- Flávio Bolsonaro+5.5pt45%
- Renan Santos-0.2pt1%
+16 more outcomes
POLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
- J.D. Vance50%
- Marco Rubio-0.1pt20%
- Tucker Carlson3%
+39 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $701M
KALSHI2028 Democratic presidential nominee
- Jon Ossoff17%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez16%
- Gavin Newsom14%
+45 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $213.1M
- 24h Vol
- $547.7K
POLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.5pt74.3%
- New People (NL)-3.8pt21.8%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-1.1pt3%
POLYMARKETNext French Presidential Election
- Marine Le Pen+0.3pt36.4%
- Édouard Philippe+2.0pt31.3%
- Jean-Luc Mélenchon-1.0pt12.1%
+38 more outcomes
- US announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- Which party will win the U.S. House?
- 2028 Republican presidential nominee
- Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- Russia Parliamentary Election Winner
- New Hampshire Democratic Senate nominee?
- Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
- South Carolina Senate winner?
- Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?
- NH-01 Democratic nominee?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will the president on January 21, 2029 be a white man??
- Manifold Markets prices Yes at 78% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will the president on January 21, 2029 be a white man? resolve?
- Will the president on January 21, 2029 be a white man? is scheduled to resolve on January 22, 2029.