Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 77.9%
Forecasters
19
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 3 hours ago
StaleNov 8, 24, 5:17 PM UTCJan 20, 29, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will the president on January 21, 2029 be a white man?
Manifold MarketsWill Trump still be president on January 1, 2029?
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Manifold MarketsDemocrat inaugurated as US president in January 2029?
Manifold MarketsWhich party will win the U.S. House?
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PolymarketRules
If Trump serves his full term the answer is yes.
- If Trump is no longer president on January 19, 2029, the answer is no.
- The reason for the end of the Trump presidency is irrelevant.