Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast2044 6.8%Leader of 6 outcomes
Forecasters
13
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 2 hours ago
StaleApr 9, 26, 6:05 PM UTCDec 31, 48, 6:53 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will Jon Ossoff announce a run for President before 2028?
PredictItWho will run for president in 2028?
KalshiWill Bernie Sanders run for President in 2028?
KalshiWill Joe Manchin run for president in 2028?
KalshiWill Rubio and Vance run for President?
KalshiWill Stephen A. Smith announce a run for president before 2028?
PredictItRules
Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve "Yes" for a specific election year option if Pope Leo XIV formally registers as a candidate for the office of President of the United States with the Federal Election Commission (FEC).
- If Leo XIV (born Robert Prevost in Chicago, 1955) resigned, returned to the US, and ran (e.g., in 2028), he meets Article II requirements (natural-born citizen, 35+, 14-year residency).
- No precedent exists, but it’s legally possible post-resignation.
