Will the next use of a nuclear bomb in combat be due to a mistaken belief that another bomb was used?

Frequently asked questions

What are the current odds for Will the next use of a nuclear bomb in combat be due to a mistaken belief that another bomb was used??

Manifold Markets prices No at 73.7% as of October 28, 2026.

When does Will the next use of a nuclear bomb in combat be due to a mistaken belief that another bomb was used? resolve?

Will the next use of a nuclear bomb in combat be due to a mistaken belief that another bomb was used? is scheduled to resolve on January 2, 2124.

How is Will the next use of a nuclear bomb in combat be due to a mistaken belief that another bomb was used? settled?

Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: This resolves after the next strategic (not tactical) nuclear bomb has been used in combat, and the circumstances surrounding its use are publicly known and mainly undisputed.

Use this market in code or an AI agent

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AI agents: call pm_data_event on the CoinRithm MCP server:

POLYMARKET

US-Iran ceasefire continues through which date?

• October 28+2.4pt99%
• October 31+2.0pt96%
• November 8-0.5pt73%

+17 more outcomes

Total Vol

$28.2M

24h Vol

$554.2K

POLYMARKET

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?

• October 27+0.5pt100%
• October 31+2.0pt97%
• November 15+0.5pt69%

+28 more outcomes

POLYMARKET

US announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?

• March 31+0.5pt60%
• December 31+0.7pt37%
• November 30+1.5pt24%

+21 more outcomes

POLYMARKET

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by which date?

• December 31,-0.5pt71%
• November 30,69%
• October 31,+0.5pt65%

+15 more outcomes

POLYMARKET

Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?

• No+1.0pt94.1%
• Yes-1.0pt5.9%

Total Vol

$28.2M

24h Vol

$107.2K

POLYMARKET

US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms?

• Yes90.1%
• No9.9%

Total Vol

$1.4M

24h Vol

$96.1K

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