Current community forecast
No 89.2%
Forecasters
37
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 59 minutes ago
LaggingFeb 21, 24, 4:14 AM UTCMar 6, 30, 3:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will Kemi Badenoch lead the Conservative party into the next General Election?
Manifold MarketsWho will become the next permanent leader of the UK Conservative Party after Kemi Badenoch?
Manifold MarketsWho will become Prime Minister of India after next general election?
KalshiWhich party will the Prime Minister of the UK be from on January 1st 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill Kemi Badenoch be Leader of the Conservative Party On May 1st 2027?
Manifold MarketsWho will become Prime Minister of Italy following the next general election?
KalshiRules
I will change the title once the next leader after Sunak is chosen.
- (It was Kemi Badenoch)
- If they are chosen whilst the Conservative Party is in power it immediately resolves to YES.
- If the Conservatives are not in power, it will resolve to YES if said leader becomes Prime Minister, and resolve to NO if they cease to be leader without doing so (Question ignores the possibility of becoming leader again)
