Current community forecast
Yes 66.2%
Forecasters
12
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 8 hours ago
StaleMay 3, 25, 6:34 AM UTCApr 30, 27, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will Kemi Badenoch lead the Conservative party into the next General Election?
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KalshiRules
Resolution criteria:
- This market will resolve to "Yes" if Kemi Badenoch holds the official title of Leader of the Conservative Party in the United Kingdom on May 1, 2027.
- If she does not hold this position on that date, the market will resolve to "No." The determination will be based on official announcements from the Conservative Party or reputable news sources.
- Kemi Badenoch became the Leader of the Conservative Party on November 2, 2024, succeeding Rishi Sunak after the party's significant defeat in the July 2024 general election.
- As the first Black woman to lead a major UK political party, Badenoch has pledged to renew the party by focusing on traditional Conservative values and preparing for the next general election, expected by 2029.
- The local elections on May 1, 2025, resulted in significant losses for the Conservative Party, with Reform UK, led by Nigel Farage, making substantial gains.
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will Kemi Badenoch be Leader of the Conservative Party On May 1st 2027??
- Manifold Markets prices Yes at 66% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will Kemi Badenoch be Leader of the Conservative Party On May 1st 2027? resolve?
- Will Kemi Badenoch be Leader of the Conservative Party On May 1st 2027? is scheduled to resolve on April 30, 2027.
- How is Will Kemi Badenoch be Leader of the Conservative Party On May 1st 2027? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolution criteria: