Current community forecast
No 88.6%
Forecasters
22
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 10 hours ago
StaleFeb 18, 25, 11:17 AM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Vote of confidence passes in Knesset by December 31?
PolymarketVote of confidence in Knesset by December 31?
PolymarketNext General Election Conservative Leader - Kemi Badenoch
SmarketsWill Kemi Badenoch lead the Conservative party into the next General Election?
Manifold MarketsNext Conservative Leader - After Kemi Badenoch
SmarketsWill Kemi Badenoch be Leader of the Conservative Party On May 1st 2027?
Manifold MarketsRules
Resolves YES if at any date before the 1st of January 2027, the 1922 Committee of the Conservative Party announce that the threshold of letters of no confidence (currently 33% of all Conservative MPs - 41 MPs as at date of creation) has been met, a Vote of No Confidence is scheduled, and takes place before the close date.
- If a VoNC does not happen, or a vote is triggered but does not take place before 1st Jan 2027, this resolves NO.
- According to current party rules, no VoNC can take place before the party leader has been in place for a full year, meaning a VoNC cannot take place before November 2025, so this covers a period of a little over a year after VoNC season starts.
- Clarification: if the party rules are amended to allow a VoNC then this will count for a YES resolution.
- The key part is the vote occurring, not any rule changes to enable it.
Open markets
SportsPOLYMARKETUS Open ATP: Frances Tiafoe vs Alex Michelsen
- Michelsen Total Sets: O/U 3.5+34.5pt100%
- Michelsen Set 3 Winner+45.5pt100%
- Michelsen Total Sets: O/U 4.5+70.5pt100%
+25 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $6.9M
- 24h Vol
- $6.9M
POLYMARKETUEFA Champions League: 2027 Champion
- Barcelona17.9%
- Arsenal15.1%
- Bayern Munich13.2%
+33 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $28.5M
KALSHIHouston vs Philadelphia
- Houston+48.0pt91.1%
- Philadelphia-48.0pt8.9%
- Total Vol
- $2.8M
- 24h Vol
- $2.7M
KALSHIUS Open Men's Singles Winner
- Carlos Alcaraz+1.0pt58%
- Alexander Zverev+4.0pt26%
- Ben Shelton+2.0pt9%
+45 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $28.6M
KALSHIBrace vs Sorribes Tormo
- Cadence Brace52%
- Sara Sorribes Tormo48%
- Total Vol
- $2.2M
- 24h Vol
- $2M
KALSHIShelton vs Alcaraz
- Carlos Alcaraz-1.0pt77.2%
- Ben Shelton+1.0pt22.8%
- Total Vol
- $2.1M
- 24h Vol
- $1.9M
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will Kemi Badenoch face a Vote of No Confidence before 1st January 2027??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 89% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will Kemi Badenoch face a Vote of No Confidence before 1st January 2027? resolve?
- Will Kemi Badenoch face a Vote of No Confidence before 1st January 2027? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2026.
- How is Will Kemi Badenoch face a Vote of No Confidence before 1st January 2027? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolves YES if at any date before the 1st of January 2027, the 1922 Committee of the Conservative Party announce that the threshold of letters of no confidence (currently 33% of all Conservative MPs - 41 MPs as at date of creation) has been met, a Vote of No Confidence is scheduled, and takes place before the close date.