Current community forecast
No 89%
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22
Question type
binary
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Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 34 minutes ago
Feb 18, 25, 11:17 AM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
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Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will there be a successful vote of no confidence in France in 2026?
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FutuurWill Kemi Badenoch lead the Conservative party into the next General Election?
Manifold MarketsWill Kemi Badenoch be Leader of the Conservative Party On May 1st 2027?
Manifold MarketsRules
Resolves YES if at any date before the 1st of January 2027, the 1922 Committee of the Conservative Party announce that the threshold of letters of no confidence (currently 33% of all Conservative MPs - 41 MPs as at date of creation) has been met, a Vote of No Confidence is scheduled, and takes place before the close date.
- If a VoNC does not happen, or a vote is triggered but does not take place before 1st Jan 2027, this resolves NO.
- According to current party rules, no VoNC can take place before the party leader has been in place for a full year, meaning a VoNC cannot take place before November 2025, so this covers a period of a little over a year after VoNC season starts.
- Clarification: if the party rules are amended to allow a VoNC then this will count for a YES resolution.
- The key part is the vote occurring, not any rule changes to enable it.