Will the next Japanese national election have a voter turnout above 60%?次の日本の国政選挙の投票率は60%を超えるか？
PoliticsCustomUS PoliticsElection1y
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 54%
Forecasters
4
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 33 minutes ago
May 30, 26, 7:14 AM UTCJul 31, 28, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will Palestine hold a national election before 2030?
Manifold MarketsBy 2027, will a political party whose platform centers on AI rights get at least 1% of the vote in a national election?
Manifold MarketsTarek Rahman will loose on his own seat in upcoming Bangladesh National election
Manifold MarketsWill a party other than PiS and PO win any national election in Poland by 2040?
Manifold MarketsPrime Minister of Israel after the next election?
Polymarket2026 Midterms: Congress Balance of Power?
KalshiRules
Japan's national elections haven't crossed 60% turnout in a long time.
- The most recent results: the Feb 2026 House of Representatives election came in around 55.68%, and the Jul 2025 House of Councillors election was 58.51%.
- For the lower house, the last time turnout exceeded 60% was the 2009 general election — every election since has stayed in the 50s.
- 日本の国政選挙は長らく投票率60%を超えていません。直近では、2026年2月の衆院選が約55.68%、2025年7月の参院選が58.51%。衆院選に限れば、最後に60%を超えたのは2009年で、それ以降はすべて50%台です。
- This market asks whether the next national election will break that wall.