What are the current odds for Will a party other than PiS and PO win any national election in Poland by 2040??

Manifold Markets prices Yes at 66.3% as of October 14, 2026.

Will a party other than PiS and PO win any national election in Poland by 2040?

Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibrated

Current community forecast

Yes 66.3%

Forecasters

Question type

binary

Methodology

Play-money forecasting platform

Source type

Forecast

Market data

Updated 5 hours ago

Stale

Apr 7, 24, 9:47 PM UTCJul 31, 40, 9:59 PM UTC

Trends

Outcome24hChance

Rules

By winning, I mean getting the largest total number of votes.

This question considers all elections on a national scale (presidential elections, parliamentary, European Parliament, even the local ones).
If a presidential candidate leaves PiS/PO just before the elections, we still consider them a member of these parties.