Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 89.1%
Forecasters
25
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 18 minutes ago
Jun 10, 24, 6:47 AM UTCJun 1, 29, 6:29 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Modi out by December 31, 2026?
PolymarketWho will lead India after Narendra Modi leaves power?
Manifold MarketsWill Narendra Modi win a fourth term as leader of India?
Manifold MarketsNarendra Modi out as Indian Prime Minister before 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill Narendra Modi be Prime Minister of India after 2029 election?
Manifold MarketsNepalese monarchy restored before 2040?
Manifold MarketsRules
The results of the 2024 Indian General Elections were declared on 5 June 2024.
- On 7 June 2024, Narendra Modi staked claim to form the government (i.e., executive) of India.
- Controlling the executive requires the support of a parliamentary majority.
- Modi's party, the Bharatiya Janata Party, on its own does not have enough seats to cross majority mark, and so requires the support of its alliance, the National Democratic Alliance, to control government.
- Resolves YES if Narendra Modi does not hold the post of Prime Minister at any point before the standard end of term.
- Resolves NO if Modi retains this post throughout the term.
