Will the Houthis attack Saudi Arabia again before September 15, 2026?

GeopoliticsOne-OffPolitics Middle East

Manifold MarketsClosedNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibrated

This market is closed and awaiting confirmed resolution.

Awaiting verified resolution

CoinRithm is waiting for provider-confirmed settlement before treating this market as resolved.

Current community forecast

🟡 Limited attack — A minor attack occurs without major damage. 38.5%

Leader of 10 outcomes

Forecasters

Question type

multiple choice

Methodology

Play-money forecasting platform

Source type

Forecast

7d Change

+28.5 pts

Market data

Updated 3 days ago

Stale

Sep 13, 26, 12:31 PM UTCSep 14, 26, 11:59 PM UTC

Trends

🟡 Limited attack — A minor attack occurs without major damage.

0.0 pts

38.5%

🟢 Yes Reason: Recent tensions and previous attacks make another attack possible

0.0 pts

21.2%

Yes, a drone strike is launched but intercepted by Saudi defenses

0.0 pts

18.8%

🔴 No Reason: Saudi air defenses and possible de-escalation could prevent another attack

0.0 pts

6.8%

Yes, a major attack resulting in significant infrastructure damage

0.0 pts

2.7%

Yes, a cross-border artillery or mortar exchange occurs

0.0 pts

2.7%

No, a formal ceasefire agreement is reached before the deadline

0.0 pts

2.7%

No, increased international diplomatic pressure prevents military action

0.0 pts

2.7%

No, the Houthis focus exclusively on internal Yemeni conflicts

0.0 pts

2.7%

Other

0.0 pts

1.1%

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Rules

Resolution criteria

This is a dependent multiple-choice market.
Only one option will resolve to YES, and all other options will resolve to NO.
This market resolves based on events occurring between the creation of this market and September 15, 2026, at 12:00 AM (00:00) UTC.
The options will resolve as follows:
the named outcome: Resolves YES if a documented Houthi attack (missile, drone, or ground raid) strikes Saudi Arabian territory and causes significant, verified damage to critical installations, such as oil refineries, pipelines, airports, or military bases.

Report a data issue with this market

Will the Houthis attack Saudi Arabia again before September 15, 2026?

GeopoliticsOne-OffPolitics Middle East

Manifold MarketsClosedNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibrated

This market is closed and awaiting confirmed resolution.

Awaiting verified resolution

CoinRithm is waiting for provider-confirmed settlement before treating this market as resolved.

Current community forecast

🟡 Limited attack — A minor attack occurs without major damage. 38.5%

Leader of 10 outcomes

Forecasters

Question type

multiple choice

Methodology

Play-money forecasting platform

Source type

Forecast

7d Change

+28.5 pts

Market data

Updated 3 days ago

Stale

Sep 13, 26, 12:31 PM UTCSep 14, 26, 11:59 PM UTC

Trends

🟡 Limited attack — A minor attack occurs without major damage.

0.0 pts

38.5%

🟢 Yes Reason: Recent tensions and previous attacks make another attack possible

0.0 pts

21.2%

Yes, a drone strike is launched but intercepted by Saudi defenses

0.0 pts

18.8%

🔴 No Reason: Saudi air defenses and possible de-escalation could prevent another attack

0.0 pts

6.8%

Yes, a major attack resulting in significant infrastructure damage

0.0 pts

2.7%

Yes, a cross-border artillery or mortar exchange occurs

0.0 pts

2.7%

No, a formal ceasefire agreement is reached before the deadline

0.0 pts

2.7%

No, increased international diplomatic pressure prevents military action

0.0 pts

2.7%

No, the Houthis focus exclusively on internal Yemeni conflicts

0.0 pts

2.7%

Other

0.0 pts

1.1%

Related Markets

Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.

Will Iran target Saudi Arabia by which date?

Polymarket

Israel and Saudi Arabia establish diplomatic relations before Israel's elections?

Manifold Markets

When will Wesley Hunt be confirmed as U.S. Ambassador to Saudi Arabia?

Kalshi

Houthis enter Saudi Arabia by which date?

Polymarket

Will Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations during Trump's term?

Kalshi

[ACX 2026] Will Saudi Arabia and Israel agree to normalise diplomatic relations during 2026?

Manifold Markets

Rules

Resolution criteria

This is a dependent multiple-choice market.
Only one option will resolve to YES, and all other options will resolve to NO.
This market resolves based on events occurring between the creation of this market and September 15, 2026, at 12:00 AM (00:00) UTC.
The options will resolve as follows:
the named outcome: Resolves YES if a documented Houthi attack (missile, drone, or ground raid) strikes Saudi Arabian territory and causes significant, verified damage to critical installations, such as oil refineries, pipelines, airports, or military bases.

Report a data issue with this market

Frequently asked questions

What are the current odds for Will the Houthis attack Saudi Arabia again before September 15, 2026??: Manifold Markets prices 🟡 Limited attack — A minor attack occurs without major damage. at 39% as of September 17, 2026.
When does Will the Houthis attack Saudi Arabia again before September 15, 2026? resolve?: Will the Houthis attack Saudi Arabia again before September 15, 2026? is scheduled to resolve on September 14, 2026.
How is Will the Houthis attack Saudi Arabia again before September 15, 2026? settled?: Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolution criteria

Will the Houthis attack Saudi Arabia again before September 15, 2026?

Will the Houthis attack Saudi Arabia again before September 15, 2026?

Frequently asked questions

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