Will the Economist Intelligent Unit stop classifying the United States as a democracy before 2030?
PoliticsOne-OffUS PoliticsElection3yManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 88.5%
Forecasters
21
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 18 hours ago
StaleMar 28, 25, 8:49 PM UTCDec 31, 29, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
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KalshiRules
Resolution Criteria
- This market resolves to YES if the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) classifies the United States as either a "hybrid regime" or an "authoritarian regime" in any of its Democracy Index reports published before January 1, 2030.
- It resolves to NO if the United States remains classified as either a "full democracy" or a "flawed democracy" in all EIU Democracy Index reports through the end of 2029.
- The Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) publishes an annual Democracy Index that categorizes countries into four regime types:
- Full democracies (scores of 8.01-10)
- Flawed democracies (scores of 6.01-8.00)
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will the Economist Intelligent Unit stop classifying the United States as a democracy before 2030??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 89% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will the Economist Intelligent Unit stop classifying the United States as a democracy before 2030? resolve?
- Will the Economist Intelligent Unit stop classifying the United States as a democracy before 2030? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2029.
- How is Will the Economist Intelligent Unit stop classifying the United States as a democracy before 2030? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolution Criteria