Will 50% of all new car sales in the United States be electric by 2030?
US PoliticsOne-OffRegulationTech3yManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 72.1%
Forecasters
155
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 7 hours ago
StaleOct 30, 23, 4:19 AM UTCJan 7, 30, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
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KalshiRules
https://www.forbes.com/sites/rinatorchinsky/2023/10/28/best-and-worst-states-to-buy-an-electric-vehicle/?sh=7c69dc351e03
- [link preview]"The Biden administration is shooting for 50% of all new car sales to be electric vehicles by 2030."
- Have to do some thinking, but my current perogrative is that we'll need more than a single month of 50% for the question to resolve "Yes." If for two consecutive quarters before 2030 we have > 50% this question will resolve yes. "if the last month of 2029 is >50% and that trend continues into 2030, the the question will also resolve "Yes."
- Update: This market will remain with 2030 as the deadline.
- There are just too many positions to change.
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will 50% of all new car sales in the United States be electric by 2030??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 72% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will 50% of all new car sales in the United States be electric by 2030? resolve?
- Will 50% of all new car sales in the United States be electric by 2030? is scheduled to resolve on January 7, 2030.
- How is Will 50% of all new car sales in the United States be electric by 2030? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: https://www.forbes.com/sites/rinatorchinsky/2023/10/28/best-and-worst-states-to-buy-an-electric-vehicle/?sh=7c69dc351e03